BarisanBerita.com,- Arah pencalonan Anies Baswedan sebagai Capres makin tak jelas. Kawan koalisi makin tak sabar lantaran level elektoral sang mantan rektor itu makin merosot. “Tangan hantu” disebut-sebut yang membuat si tokoh antitesa ini ciut nyalinya untuk maju terus.
Direktur Eksekutif Institute for Democracy and Strategic Affairs (INDOSTRATEGIC), Ahmad Khoirul Umam memberikan analisa atas tercecernya elektabilitas Anies Baswedan dan stagnasi Koalisi Perubahan.
Ia mengungkap lima penyebab elektabilitas Anies Baswedan tidak kunjung membaik dan juga tidak adanya perubahan yang signifikan dari NasDem, Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS), dan Demokrat selaku anggota dari Koalisi Perubahan.
“Hasil survei Litbang Kompas periode Agustus 2023, kembali mengkonfirmasi “tercecernya” elektabilitas Capres Koalisi Perubahan Anies Baswedan. Meskipun pernah mencapai elektabilitas di sekitar angka 29 persen pada penghujung 2022, namun selama paruh pertama tahun 2023 ini, elektabilitas Anies selalu “tercecer” di posisi terbawah dengan jarak angka cukup jauh dibanding Capres potensial lainnya seperti Prabowo dan Ganjar,” ujarnya dalam keterangan tertulis Rabu 23 Agustus 2023.
Dosen Ilmu Politik Universitas Paramadian ini menilai tercecernya elektabilitas Anies juga dibayangi oleh stagnannya koalisi pendukungnya. Saat PKS dan Demokrat sudah menyatakan siap mendeklarasikan pasangan capres-cawapres, NasDem justru terus mengulur waktu.
Penyebab kedua, kata Khoirul Umam, diamnya NasDem kemungkinan besar disebabkan oleh the invisible hand yakni tangan-tangan berkuasa tidak terlihat yang sedang hobi ‘menggebuk’ lawan politiknya dengan instrumen hukum dan Surya Paloh merasa tersandera karena hal tersebut.
“Karena ketakutannya pada manuver ‘tukang gebug’ itu, Paloh terus memilih diam, mengulur waktu, dan tidak segera memutuskan nasib keberlanjutan pencapresan Anies,” ucapnya.
Anies juga dinilai tidak agresif dan ikut-ikutan diam dalam memimpin koalisi. Sebagai capres pro-perubahan, kata dia, Anies juga dinilai semakin gamang dan tidak cukup berani dalam mengkritik kebijakan pemerintah yang diklaimnya akan diubah.
“Problemnya, stagnasi elektabilitas Anies dan bergemingnya NasDem dalam jangka panjang ini betul-betul menjadi ‘ujian berat’ bagi partai-partai pengusung Anies lainnya,” tuturnya.
Selanjutnya, Khoirul berpendapat hal tersebut menyebabkan kemunculan ide penggabungan Ganjar-Anies sebagai pasangan capres-cawapres. Hal ini dipandang sebagai strategi awal pembubaran koalisi perubahan. Ia menilai hal ini dilakukan agar partai anggota yang merasa tidak nyaman dapat keluar dari koalisi.
“Jika ini terjadi, maka deadlock Koalisi Perubahan sebenarnya bukan semata-mata akibat benturan ego elit partai-partai, tetapi juga akibat dari cawe-cawe tangan kekuasaan yang ‘mengunci’ tangan dan kaki salah satu partai pengusung Anies. Sehingga gamang dan tidak siap menghadapi risiko besar pencapresan Anies ke depan,” ucapnya.
Penyebab terakhir, Khoirul Umam mengatakan, jika Koalisi Perubahan benar-benar masih ingin tampil kompetitif, seharusnya Anies bisa lebih agresif dan berani memecah kebekuan di dalam koalisinya. Sebab, pasca bergabungnya Golkar dan PAN ke kubu Prabowo, konfigurasi partai politik pembentuk poros koalisi saat ini sudah fase final.
“Tidak ada lagi yang perlu ditunggu. Jika Anies tetap terdiam, Anies tidak sadar dirinya hampir kehilangan momentum. Anies seharusnya juga paham bahwa success story-nya di Pilkada Jakarta 2017, dimana elektabilitasnya sempat tercecer di awal kontestasi, tidak bisa disamakan dan diterapkan kembali dalam kontestasi Pilpres Indonesia. Seharusnya Anies dan koalisinya bisa bergerak cepat dengan deklarasi capres-cawapres, finalisasi Sekretariat Bersama (Sekber), dan membentuk infrastruktur pemenangan,” ucapnya.
(BBS, Tmp/HA)
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